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Can Allderdice win The Allegheny County Tournament?

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Re: Can Allderdice when The Allegheny County Tournament?

Postby lightcounter » Wed Jan 16, 2013 3:57 pm

CityLeageRep wrote:
lightcounter wrote:Even with the benefit of generous seeding they finished 12th:

1. North Allegheny 240, 2. Hampton 203.5, 3. Central Catholic 183, 4. South Fayette 170.5, 5. North Hills 164, 6. Mt. Lebanon 117, 7. Plum 104, 8.
Shaler 98.5, 9. Upper St. Clair 98, 10. West Allegheny 95.5, 11. Chartiers Valley 95, 12. Allderdice 94, 13. Fox Chapel 92, 14. West Mifflin 92,


Mr. lightcounter you always have positive things to say of course...you must of missed my woulda, coulda, shoulda post on the open forum about the Dice well here it is below:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Allderdice is in 9th place after 1st day but all I keep saying is Should, Coulda and Woulda....
all have advanced to the semis...
138 Ean Disilvio 12-1
145 Dillon Mulvihill 7-1
152 Brian Estep 13-0

and the following are in wrestle backs
120 Isiah Sappy 3-2
160 Cameron Jacobsen 10-3
182 Jalyn Wilkins 11-2
195 Rainier Smith
HWY Pat Ferguson 7-4

Shoulda had more Team points if #3 seed Dorian and #7 Josh wrestled
113 Dorian Long-Devaugh 12-0 (Coach disiplined)
126 Josh Zinkovsky 7-4 (Skin)

Coulda had even more Team Points if Pat was returning to wrestle the 2nd day
HWY Pat Ferguson (College Visit)

WOULDA made history for District 8 and placed high somewhere in the top 5 (ok top 10)

BUT
Team Allderdice is putting on a great show and I hope they do finish in the top 15 this season ...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Allderdice still had the highest place for a City school ever and to add their 170 didnt make it to the tourney also ...I wonder how any of they school ahead of Taylor Gang would of done if a 3rd and 7th seed didnt wrestle and a returning guy had to miss the second day...and 1 non seeded wrestler miss the tourney ....with all that said the Dice did a great job.



Actually, I did see your "woulda, coulda, shoulda" post on the other thread, I just didn't care. I appreciate that you are the booster for the City League, and I'm glad someone is. But I'm not here to boost them (or bash them). My issue for several years now is trying to get the AC tournament to improve its seeding process, which right now is just a formula that produces poor results, as I've documented for you in the past. Here's this year's version for TA and the rest of D8.

A good seeding system will produce seeds that resemble the final standings. It will never predict exactly, since no one knows enough to predict 100%, plus even when one wrestler is 'better' than another in some long term, multi-match sense, if you only wrestle once you are going to get some upsets.

Having said this though, when comparing the seeds to the results you should see some correlation, and in particular, if the seeds are unbiased we'd expect both some under and over performances. The reason I say the TA seeds were generous is that 100% of the TA wrestlers underperformed their seed, and all but one of the rest of D8 did as well:

106 #2 seed was fifth
113 #7 did not place (DNP)
120 #5 DNP
138 #2 third
145 #5 DNP
145 #4 fifth
152 #1 second
170 #5 fifth -- only one to equal his seed
182 #2 DNP
195 #7 DNP
220 #3 fifth
220 #5 DNP
285 #7 DNP

Now, what I will say is that these results are better than most years, in that some guys were close, e.g. off only by one place. And, we did finally have one that matched his seed, whereas I don't believe that has happened before. So, those are signs of progress in D8, and to be congratulated.

However, the system still needs to be fixed. And keep in mind that being seeded higher is an advantage, and therefore tends to generate higher actual placings, so going DNP after getting a seed is a poor result, suggesting that the seed was not merited in the first place.

And it is not just D8 with the issues. The formula creates other poor seedings that would be avoided with some knowledgable human intervention. The point scoring based on absolute wins and losses is biased towards wrestlers with more matches, and also against wrestlers with tougher schedules. It also does not account for talented wrestlers who start their season late due to injury or the never ending football playoffs.

And the small correction that the committee does (extra points for returning state /regional/ section champs, etc. is well-motivated, but introduces error to the extent that they are guessing as to what achievements are equivalent, and also biases the system against freshman who will never have any of these points. (Think Pletcher at the Powerade tournament this year - he was a freshman, but he should have been given a seed.) So, it is not clear that the cure is better than the disease there.

If you don't think that the system should be changed, here are two data points to consider: If the seeding is well done just the way it is, how does a #9 seed make the finals at 106? And how does an unseeded wrestler finish third at 220? Both of these guys were clearly better than the way they were seeded. A lot of these issues could go away if they would simply use the formula as a first draft of the bracket, but then allow for corrections.
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Re: Can Allderdice win The Allegheny County Tournament?

Postby CityLeageRep » Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:18 pm

Allderdice's 113 did not wrestle and the HWY was unable to wrestle the second day because of a college visit. I think you beef is with the wrong people how about emailing Bob or Ron about this issue...sound to me that you are putting a dim light on a great showing by Allderdice. How about more hand clapping instead of being a gray cloud to City League Wrestling. We all know District 8 is behind on wrestling so many factors like no junior programs, ect...no need to bash it in so much dude. Would you be happier if D8 didnt attend ACT? Or how about discontiune wrestling all together?

The Shaler kid at 106 had a low seed because he was a 9th grader... same with Luke...that is how it is...how would you perfect seeding look like? There is no Perfert seeding unless there are heavy favorites in the bracket...for example 106 #2 Butler of Perry lost to #3 Curry of NH (ranked 1st in the state) ...the #2 vs #3 match is almost always a toss up...then he lost to #1 Stossel of NA 3-1. Even though Butler finished #5th its not like he lost to unseeded wrestlers. Better yet next year you put a bracket together and lets see if you can put the money where your mouth is...and for 220 the NA kid just had a good tourney is that not possible...no one thought Q Wright was going to in Nationals that year either...point is things happen...

And you also say having a higher seed ensures you a easier bracket... if the seeds are all crappy how is that true. If guys that are unworthy of their seed wrestle guys that should of maybe gotten a seed how is there an advantage?

How many other teams were there that didnt have their wrestlers meet their seed...bet alot of them
move over district 8 is here
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Re: Can Allderdice win The Allegheny County Tournament?

Postby alethia » Thu Jan 17, 2013 1:36 am

This is a little ridiculous. I have seen lightcounter on here for years, and he generally on point.

First, don't talk about how TA would have done if certain guys were in the lineup. Every team has to show up and bring their starters. There is no room for any coulda, shoulda, and woulda. TA placed well for a D8 team, with a boatload of points from a kid from Hampton. Facts are facts. NA did, Hampton did, PCC did, SF did, NH did....etc. And there is no post from any of those teams about how things could have gone differently. They just wrestled and went home.

D8 is behind because it is behind. No excuses. Godwin proved that if a D8 kid wants to get it done, it is possible. Your excuses create more of a gray cloud than light's facts.

No one wants D8 to not come to the ACT, just don't complain when we tell you that your city league title is worth about as much as a 4th or 5th in one of the WPIAL sections.

The ACT seeding is a mess and a joke, obviously. But so is the tournament. Why would you not wrestle down to 12 wrestlers on Friday night? The teams went home on Friday at like 5 or something. And all of the hoopla and the other stuff keeping people around and coming back to generate revenue is ridiculous. How about wrestle to 12 on Friday, or even better 8, so some kids don't have to get up at 6 a.m. so that they can lose one match and be stranded until 9 at night!!! So, wrestle down to 8 on Friday, whenever possible. If the brackets are so big that kids are going over the 5 matches, wrestle to 12 and come back the next day and get at it all the way to the finals. Then, wrestle all of the medal rounds together. No one really cares about this big show. Let's get it done and get home before 5 p.. on Saturday.

Now, back to TA and D8. First - I have to address that Curry is not ranked 1st in the state. That is lunacy. He is as tough as they come, but Pletcher is way ahead of that power curve. Whatever rankings you are reading that have Curry beating him...well, toss them out of the window and never look back. Now, CityLeagueRep, you need to come back to reality. This is getting old. Your arguments are reaching out for anything that you can grasp, and I am being nice by saying that. But, it really isn't your fault.

Better seeds do equal an easier bracket. And in most cases, The teams that are good that come to this tournament that have seasoned wrestlers have a true seed. Hampton, PCC, NA...the guys on those teams are battle tested, have been through the ringer, and their wins and losses mean something. So when they are seeded on a 10-4 record, with going 3-2 at Powerade or Manheim, these guys deserve better than a kid that placed at the City League Championships last year. Again, not your fault as to what is happening here.

Here is the issue. The county tournament is completely mismanaged. And it can be easily fixed. Take the seeds, and use math to compare the seeds to the places. (They use math to seed, use math to fix the seed...) Find a common denominator. If the seeded wrestlers that don't place are the ones that are seeded from wins and losses, fix that criteria. If it is because they are seeded because of a section title or a city league title, fix that criteria. I think it is safe to say that the seeding, when done right, makes for a better tournament. The right guys meet in the right rounds, and the right guys place. Saying that "things happen" is true, but not the right way to handle it. Let's try to make things work out the way that they would 90% of the time so that we have a tournament worth watching. I mean, if you are going to kick everyone out of the gym and make them pay to get back in, don't you think that you should have the right kids actually wrestling in the medal rounds?

Here is the easy way to seed. Make the points add up. Encourage wrestling. If someone took second in their section, 3rd at wpials, 7th at states, 2nd at counties, and 4th at Powerade. Give them all of the points. Give them points for any tournament entered that season so far. If they took 2nd at CH, then 1st at WM, give them those points also. That sounds crazy, right? Well, not really, considering that there are so many points for a guy going to a dual tournament in somewheresville, WV that wins 7 matches. (That is 21 pints according to the current seeding method....more points than qualifying for WPIALS, one of the hardest tournaments in the country...). If you give points for actually wrestling, in every sense, I know that the points will be crazy, but they will give true seeds. Just like any kind of data, the more of it you have, the more accurate the results will be.

So, good job TA. The boys did great. We are all proud of them and want the D8 to grow. Just remember that when it is all said and done, there will always be doubts and second guessing until things get fixed and leveled out.
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Re: Can Allderdice win The Allegheny County Tournament?

Postby topdog » Fri Jan 25, 2013 12:38 pm

correct me if I m wrong , didn t Estep wrestle for Hampton and I m sure he didnt transfer for academic reason or for wrestling so how did he end up in the city league.
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Re: Can Allderdice win The Allegheny County Tournament?

Postby topdog » Fri Jan 25, 2013 2:00 pm

funny expert, you talk as if Estep has always been a city wrestler. He is there for whatever reason, the quality of your practice partner makes all the difference in the world on how well you do.
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Re: Can Allderdice win The Allegheny County Tournament?

Postby CityLeageRep » Sat Jan 26, 2013 9:48 pm

topdog wrote:correct me if I m wrong , didn t Estep wrestle for Hampton and I m sure he didnt transfer for academic reason or for wrestling so how did he end up in the city league.


He got expelled and transfered to Pittsburgh Public School...Taylor Allderdice is a fine school to attend.
move over district 8 is here
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Re: Can Allderdice win The Allegheny County Tournament?

Postby CityLeageRep » Sat Jan 26, 2013 9:56 pm

topdog wrote:funny expert, you talk as if Estep has always been a city wrestler. He is there for whatever reason, the quality of your practice partner makes all the difference in the world on how well you do.


How should I refer to Estep as the former Hampton wrestlers...how to you refer to the wrestlers at Central, or Cannon Mac they get alot of kids from other districts and I never heard of anyone refer to a transfer wrestler as , ex: John Doe formerly of Penn Hills.

If all the District 8 wrestlers who live in the PPS district wrestled for a D8 school we would for sure have had more State placers and champs...

Penn Hills best wrestlers is a transfer from Westinghouse just to add that.
move over district 8 is here
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Re: Can Allderdice win The Allegheny County Tournament?

Postby alethia » Sat Jan 26, 2013 11:57 pm

Just about every program that doesn't have a ridiculous group of studs that came up from their youth programs together has done something less that credible to win a title recently. PCC has kids from everywhere. No one is saying that Sunny recruits, because he probably doesn't have to, he just gets good wrestlers because he is good at what he does. A few years ago, Hempfield had the kids from GCC, and that was ugly. NA was accused of recruiting in the late 80's and early 90's. And now it is CM. Sure, them having kids from Penn-Trafford, Charleroi, Bethel, Mount Lebanon, and WV through the recent years doesn't help their credibility. But people moved there because they thought that their kids would have the best chance to succeed there. No different than a family choosing a district because of great academics or community. People want to wrestle for good programs, and under good coaches. Even in a hotbed of wrestling such as the WPIAL, people are searching for the best.

For the record, I did a little research. If you want to move it to another level, kids will find success no matter where they live, and who they wrestle for. Take last year for an example:

Olympics:
NA - Jake Herbert
Waynesburg - Coleman Scott
CV/SF - MArk McKnight semis


NCAA guys:
FR - Nico Megaman 2nd
CV - Wilps 4th
WM - Fleming 5th


And the best wrestler in PA (which, mind you, is the best state, in the best country, in the world...) history in most people's opinion is from a hole in the wall called "Rice's Landing" - Cary Kolat. Not exactly what people would call a "powerhouse."
None of those are the programs that we mention as being the "great" wrestling programs that we are all envious of or move our kids into - ok, maybe NA. So, why do we really care if some kid moves into this or that district and that team wins a title...the better kids are still coming out of the other programs anyway!!

So let the parents create their super teams with all of their money and influence and connections. But if the info above says nothing, it is that, in the end this is an individual sport and that the individual is going to be the one that decides if he is successful.


Now, about Estep...one thing I can say, is that I don't think that he was recruited, according to the earlier post. So, no one can complain about that. TA has a great squad with a good young coach that has some passion and is doing some nice things there. And, Brian is only a kid, so let's keep his personal business off of the public forums.

Congrats to TA and the rest of the D8 kids that are doing good things and making big strides. There are some great glimmers of talent there, and I hope they develop and continue to make wrestling better.
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Re: Can Allderdice win The Allegheny County Tournament?

Postby Mr Blondey » Sun Jan 27, 2013 4:56 am

More or less agree w/alethia, except about the rices landing thing-Greene County is a real hotbed for wrestling, and the only team to have done more in WPIAL AA in the last 30 or so years than JeffeRson-Morgan is Burrell, These kids from Pittsburgh need to stop settling, there will always be more great ones from D7 because there are many more teams. It's a bad comparison. Estep & DiSilvio aren't state champ material probably, but could certainly be placewinners. They need to be encouraged to reach for it, not to hold themselves back because they're from the City. I mean that with all respect-if I were the coach, I'd be telling them they were good enough to medal, because they are. Go out there and earn what you;re worth.
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Re: Can Allderdice win The Allegheny County Tournament?

Postby alethia » Wed Jan 30, 2013 1:42 am

Mr Blondey wrote:More or less agree w/alethia, except about the rices landing thing-Greene County is a real hotbed for wrestling, and the only team to have done more in WPIAL AA in the last 30 or so years than JeffeRson-Morgan is Burrell, These kids from Pittsburgh need to stop settling, there will always be more great ones from D7 because there are many more teams. It's a bad comparison. Estep & DiSilvio aren't state champ material probably, but could certainly be placewinners. They need to be encouraged to reach for it, not to hold themselves back because they're from the City. I mean that with all respect-if I were the coach, I'd be telling them they were good enough to medal, because they are. Go out there and earn what you;re worth.



Yep. And you are right Blondey, I guess I did undershoot JM a bit. Sorry to all of the Greene County folks out there. Nice history for wrestling in such a small town, pound for pound you guys may be better than just about anyone. And yes, D8 needs to stop settling and acting like every close match or victory is some kind of huge accomplishment. It almost makes you want to root against them. They are literally surrounded by the best wrestlers in the world. They need to start acting like it and take the bull by the horns and start wrestling!!!!
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