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NYS Intercollegiate - Rankings / Handicapping

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NYS Intercollegiate - Rankings / Handicapping

Postby Tyrion » Fri Nov 20, 2015 1:56 am

The NYS Intercollegiate Tournament is coming up this Sunday. The Intercollegiate provides a unique opportunity for NY collegiate teams, across all divisions, to complete head to head (team and open formats).

There are many fine wrestlers outside of D1 schools and they will win a good share of matches. However, I only consider the six NY D1 schools (Army, Binghamton, Buffalo, Columbia, Cornell, and Hofstra) here.

Based on Wrestling Report National Rankings (Gregg Henry, 11/18) and Wrestling Report Eastern Rankings (Allen Brown, 10/18), what might we expect for the team competition?

For each weight class I've listed "Wrestler" ("Team") "National Ranking"/"Eastern Ranking";.... Wrestlers are ordered; first by National Ranking and second by Eastern Ranking.

[[125]] D Macri (Cornell) 16/6; J Mai (Columbia) -/16; B Damon (Hofstra) -/17; T Diallo (Binghamton) -/21; K Akins (Buffalo) -/24; S Badua (Army) -/25 ///
[[133]] N Garrett (Cornell) 3/1; A Amenta (Columbia) 33/16; B Lantry (Buffalo) -/25; T Pissaro (Hofstra) -/25
[[141]] J Hudson (Hofstra) 19/11; M Grey (Cornell) 26/12; L Everett (Army) -/22; J Estevez (Buffalo) -/23; D Caruana (Binghamton) -/25
[[149]] J Galasso (Cornell) 33/17; C Cotton (Buffalo) -/21; J Rodriguez (Army) -/23; C Sutton (Columbia) -/24
[[157]] M Schiedel (Columbia) 24/12; R Parsons (Army) 26/15; Dowdy/Chavez (Cornell) -/22; C Koo (Binghamton) -/25
[[165]] D Pickett (Cornell) 12/4; T White (Columbia) 26/8; J Callender (Hofstra) -/24
[[174]] B Realbuto (Cornell) 5/2; B Harvey (Army) 24/7; J McKeever (Binghamton) 28/11; Z Hernandez (Columbia) 33/23; F Affronti (Hofstra) -/25
[[184]] G Dean (Cornell) 1/1; S Schneider (Binghamton) 23/16; S Imonode (Army) -/25; J Ariola (Buffalo) -/25
[[197]] J Taylor (Cornell) 22/-; B Barnes (Army) 24/9
[[285]] G Ryan (Columbia) 23/15; M Hughes (Hofstra) 24/17; J Gunning (Buffalo) 26/13; J Sweany (Cornell) 32/25; Calkins (Binghamton) -/24

What do these rankings suggest?

1) There is a minimum of two and a maximum of six ranked wrestlers for each weight class. So, lots of competition and great wrestling to be expected.

Early season rankings are unstable. New lineups, new starters, new training partners, experience, coaching changes, etc. Many excellent wrestlers are under-ranked or un-ranked at this point. So...

2) Going forward, team and individual rankings are likely to change a lot. The NYS Intercollegiate will impact the National and Eastern (especially) rankings a lot!

Taking the National and Eastern Rankings at face value... I give the number of "1st - 6th" ranked wrestlers for each team and the "-#' of weight classes without ranked wrestlers. I give the same (higher) rank for "tied" wrestlers (for example at [[184]] I give both S Imonode (Army) -/25 and J Ariola (Buffalo) -/25 a rank of "3").

NCAA wrestling tournament scoring [per Wiki, ignoring bonus and advancement points] is: 1st place: 16 points, 2nd place: 12 points, 3rd place: 10 points, 4th place: 9 points, 5th place: 7 points, 6th place: 6 points.

1. Cornell 711100-0 [143 points]
2. Columbia 240200-2 [98 points]
3.Army 033001-3 [72 points]
4. Hofstra 112110-4 [64 points]
5. Buffalo 012300-4 [59 points]
6. Binghamton 001130-5 [40 points]

3) Based on these rankings, we would expect Cornell to dominate team scoring (no surprise), followed by Columbia, Army, Hofstra, Buffalo, and Binghamton.

I'm pretty sure that team ordering and scoring gaps will differ significantly from these "predictions". But... Sunday will tell. :D Time permitting, I'll revise team starters and rankings.
Tyrion
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Re: NYS Intercollegiate - Rankings / Handicapping

Postby Allen Brown » Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:41 am

^^TYRION, Very excellent analysis. Here's some additional info that I found this morning, posted on NYWN, wrestlers registered for the NYS A Division-

125 Pounds:

Kyle Akins (Buffalo)

Josh Antoine (Nassau Community College)

Dylan Booth (SUNY Sullivan)

Steven Bulzomi (Binghamton)

Britain Carter (Columbia)

Bryan Damon (Hofstra)

Thierno Diallo (Binghamton)

Andy Flanagan (RIT)

James Kaishian (Ithaca)

Asher Kramer (Brockport)

Dalton Macri (Cornell)

Mike Mui (USMMA)

Andrew Roden (Cortland)

Tyler Walsh (LIU Post)

Wayne Yuan (NYU)



133 Pounds:

Angelo Amenta (Columbia)

Joe Calderone (LIU Post)

Austin Day (NYU)

Kimo Dial (USMMA)

Nahshon Garrett (Cornell)

William Hardin (USMMA)

Bryan Israel (Ithaca)

Bryan Lantry (Buffalo)

Kyle McGregor (Niagara CCC)

Chris Meloni (Nassau)

Jake Nicholson (Binghamton)

Jaydon Rice (Hunter)

Jake Sepor (RIT)

Eric Velez (Brockport)

141 Pounds:

Anthony Calvano (NYU)

Dylan Caruana (Binghamton)

Jesse Dellavecchia (Binghamton)

Logan Everett (Army West Point)

TJ Fabian (LIU Post)

Derak Heyman (Cortland)

Jamel Hudson (Hofstra)

William Koll (Cornell)

Brandon Lapi (Buffalo)

Dan Maye (USMMA)

Sean Miller (Nassau)

Joe Moita (Columbia)

Sean O'Hagan (Brockport)

Chris Rivera (Niagara)

John Sherlock (Nassau)

Vincent Turano (LIU Post)

Nick Wahba (Ithaca)

Naquan Warren (Jamestown CC)



149 Pounds:

Colt Cotten (Buffalo)

Narankhuu Ganbaatar (Hunter)

Frank Garcia (Binghamton)

Aaron Hartman (Hofstra)

Colin Hopkins (Nassau)

Dempsey King (RIT)

Matt Langan (LIU Post)

Mark Marchetti (Army West Point)

Nicholas Matthews (NYU)

Cody McGregor (Niagara)

David Naupari (Hunter)

Daniel Pak (Ithaca)

Tyler Ponte (Columbia)

Javier Rodriguez (Army West Point)

Taylor Simaz (Cornell)

Nate Skonieczny (Jamestown)

Austin Whitney (Cortland)

157 Pounds:

Erik Beshada (USMMA)

Jahlani Callender (Hofstra)

Brendan Dent (Cortland)

James Devine (Buffalo)

Vincent DePrez (Binghamton)

Bobby Dierna (Cortland)

Chris Dowdy (Cornell)

Mike Dusold (Nassau)

Kirk Feeney (RIT)

Eamonn Gaffney (Ithaca)

Raymond Jazikoff (NYU)

Barry Hart (Hunter)

William Heine (Hunter)

Wonsik Kim (RIT)

Russ Parsons (Army West Point)

Markus Scheidel (Columbia)



165 Pounds:

Colin Barber (Cortland)

Zach Colgan (Niagara)

Anthony DePrez (Binghamton)

John Donahue (RIT)

Michael Falcon (Brockport)

Bobby Fehr (Hofstra)

Derek Holcomb (Buffalo)

Dylan Lojac (NYU)

Mike Maye (USMMA)

Andrew Mendel (Army West Point)

Rrok Ndokaj (Buffalo)

Kaydon Newton (Niagara)

Duke Pickett (Cornell)

Eduardo Ramirez (LIU Post)

Nick Velez (Ithaca)

Brian Vutianitis (Cortland)

Tyrel White (Columbia)

174 Pounds:

Erik Adon (Nassau)

Frank Affronti (Hofstra)

Nicholas Brutus (Hunter)

Blake Bunce (USMMA)

Tracy Cistrunk (Niagara)

Declan Gray (Hunter)

Brian Harvey (Army West Point)

Zack Hernandez (Columbia)

Jermaine John (Hofstra)

Alex Kelly (Niagara)

Lou Puca (Cortland)

Brian Realbuto (Cornell)

Austin Weigel (Buffalo)

Jaison White (Ithaca)



184 Pounds:

Mike Beckwith (Cortland)

Cory Damiana (Hofstra)

Gabe Dean (Cornell)

Mike Fetchet (Columbia)

William Gockel-Figge (NYU)

Samson Imonode (Army West Point)

Dan Joseph (Nassau)

Ron King (LIU Post)

Anthony Liberatore (Niagara)

Jeff Palmeri (Brockport)

Patrick Rooney (USMMA)

Steve Schneider (Binghamton)

Carlos Toribio (Ithaca)

197 Pounds:

Bryce Barnes (Army West Point)

James Benjamin (Buffalo)

Rocco Caywood (Army West Point)

Triston Engle (Brockport)

Ricky Fisher (USMMA)

Joe Giaramita (Cortland)

Daniel Glinko (Ithaca)

Omar Haddad (Hofstra)

Troy Hembury (Columbia)

Jake Horton (LIU Post)

Jake Swearingen (RIT)

Jake Taylor (Cornell)

Marshall Taylor (Niagara)

Mark Tracy (Binghamton)



285 Pounds:

Matthew Booth (Ithaca)

Dequan Brooks (Niagara)

Robert Cuomo (SUNY Sullivan)

Jake Gunning (Buffalo)

Mike Hughes (Hofstra)

Branden Joest (USMMA)

Jasari Jones (Jamestown)

Dennis Melendez (Hunter)

Santino Pelusi (NYU)

Jenard Rosemond (Nassau)

Garrett Ryan (Columbia)

Paul Steinmetz (NYU)

Trevor Smith (Army West Point)

Jeramy Sweany (Cornell)

Sam Weigner (RIT)

Unfortunately Buffalo will have some of their best guys sitting out this weekend. DangDangDang.
Allen Brown
 

Re: NYS Intercollegiate - Rankings / Handicapping

Postby Tyrion » Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:26 pm

Thanks Allen! I took a peek at team listings on Track Wrestling. More lineup changes. So... I'll wait until Saturday to let things settle down. Then, I'll redo the "analysis" and note where ranked wrestlers are out of lineups. Won't change any scores at the NYS Intercollegiate, but might "suggest" how future duals or individual matches are "likely" to go. :)

Looking at Buffalo... starters J Estevez (141), J Ariola (184), T Rill (165), M McBride (174), and now Colt Cotton (149) are "out". May be more changes but... most of these wrestlers were "predicted" to do well. No slight intended to other Buffalo wrestlers... B Lapi was in for J Estevez at the Journeyman Duals, winning two of three against Springfield, Lockhaven, and West Virginia. J Holcomb is in for T Rill and A Wiegel is in for M McBride. Both have had some success. All could do well in the tournament.
Last edited by Tyrion on Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Tyrion
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Re: NYS Intercollegiate - Rankings / Handicapping

Postby Tyrion » Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:23 pm

Another reflection... The NYS Intercollegiate Open also has many good young wrestlers. Buffalo has a strong open team that includes J Patrick (125), B Retell and R Russo (133), S Peacock (141), T Forte (149), R Kromer (174), N Rose (197), and I James (285).

* Patrick and Forte took first place at the ESU Open while Kromer took third place (SV loss to winner).
* Peacock was a 19-13 true freshman starter for Buffalo last year.
* Rose is a 2X NYS HS champ and won a match at the World Senior Freestyle (Trinidad & Tobago). Ben Honis (FLWC) defeated Rose 9-1 earlier this season. So, looking forward to the rematch.
* James made great gains this year and I expect will contend.
* Retell and Russo have both had some success.

Will be very interesting to "see" the future a bit.

Finally, Buffalo has a busy December upcoming, including two conference matches (E Michigan, Kent S), two non-conference matches (Clarion, Appalachian S), and finishing up with Midlands.

We haven't mentioned A Smythe, last year's starter at 157. He is out until sometime in December recovering from injury. In his absence, Tim Schaeffer has done a solid job (sadly, also appears "out" for the NYS Intercollegiate though).

Hopefully, all of Buffalo's starters (Estevez, Cotton, Rill, Ariola, McBride, and Smythe/Schaeffer) will be ready to go soon!
Tyrion
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Re: NYS Intercollegiate - Rankings / Handicapping

Postby Tyrion » Sun Nov 22, 2015 12:40 am

Ok.... I’ve updated “handicapping” for the NYS Intercollegiate Tournament which takes place tomorrow in Ithaca NY.

Again, there are many fine wrestlers outside of D1 schools and they will win a good share of matches. However, I only consider the six NY D1 schools (Army, Binghamton , Buffalo, Columbia, Cornell, and Hofstra) here; and I continue to base the review on Wrestling Report National Rankings (Gregg Henry, 11/18) and Wrestling Report Eastern Rankings (Allen Brown, 10/18)

For each weight class I've listed all D1 wrestlers in the format: "Wrestler" ("Team") "National Ranking"/"Eastern Ranking";.... Wrestlers are ordered; first by National Ranking and second by Eastern Ranking.

[[125]] D Macri (Cornell) 16/6; J Mai (Columbia) -/16; B Damon (Hofstra) -/17; T Diallo (Binghamton) -/21; K Akins (Buffalo) -/24; S Badua (Army) -/25; S Bulzomi (Binghamton) -/-; B Carter (Columbia) -/-; NONE (Army)

[[133]] N Garrett (Cornell) 3/1; A Amenta (Columbia) 33/16; B Lantry (Buffalo) -/25; J Nicholson (Binghamton) -/-; NONE (Army); NONE (Hofstra)

[[141]] J Hudson (Hofstra) 19/11; L Everett (Army) -/22; J Lapi (Buffalo) -/23; D Caruana (Binghamton) -/25; J Dellavechia (Binghamton) -/-; J Moita (Columbia) -/-; W Koll (Cornell) -/-

[[149]] T Simaz (Cornell) -/17; J Rodriguez (Army) -/23; F Garcia (Binghamton) -/-; M Marchetti (Army) -/-; T Ponte (Columbia) -/-; J Callender (Hofstra) -/-

[[157]] M Schiedel (Columbia) 24/12; R Parsons (Army) 26/15; Dowdy (Cornell) -/22; J Callender (Hofstra) -/24; V Deprez (Binghamton) -/25; J Devine (Buffalo) -/-; C Koshgarian (Hofstra) -/-

[[165]] D Pickett (Cornell) 12/4; T White (Columbia) 26/8; A Mendel (Army) -/-; A Deprez (Binghamton) -/-; R Holcomb (Buffalo) -/-; R Ndokaj (Buffalo) -/-; NONE (Hofstra)

[[174]] B Realbuto (Cornell) 5/2; B Harvey (Army) 24/7; Z Hernandez (Columbia) 33/23; F Affronti (Hofstra) -/25; A Weigel (Buffalo) -/-; J Jermaine (Hofstra) -/-; NONE (Binghamton)

[[184]] G Dean (Cornell) 1/1; S Imonode (Army) -/25; R Williams (Binghamton) -/-; M Fichet (Columbia) -/-; C Damiana (Hofstra) -/-; NONE (Buffalo)

[[197]] J Taylor (Cornell) 22/-; B Barnes (Army) 24/9; R Caywood (Army) -/-; M Tracy (Binghamton) -/-; J Benjamin (Buffalo) -/-; T Hembry (Columbia) -/-; O Haddad (Hofstra) -/-

[[285]] M Hughes (Hofstra) 24/17; J Gunning (Buffalo) 26/13; J Sweany (Cornell) 32/25; Calkins (Binghamton) -/24; T Smith (Army) -/-; NONE (Columbia); NONE (Binghamton)

Each D1 team has 10 wrestlers competing in the tournament. I've taken the National and Eastern Rankings at face value. I give the number of "1st - 6th" ranked wrestlers for each team. I did change the estimate calculation for team scoring a bit.

When two or more wrestlers are “tied” I list them at the highest –average- ranking (rounding up or down to the closest ranking). I then use the NCAA wrestling tournament scoring [per Wiki] 1st place: 16 points, 2nd place: 12 points, 3rd place: 10 points, 4th place: 9 points, 5th place: 7 points, 6th place: 6 points. Again I ignore bonus and advancement points.

1 [<=1] Cornell 702001 [138 points]
2 [<=3] Army 061111 [105 points]
3 [<=4] Hofstra 210421 [100 points]
4 [<=2] Columbia 121222 [94 points]
5 [<=5] Buffalo 012421 [88 points]
6 [<=6] Binghamton 001621 [84 points]

Based on current rankings but adjusted for wrestlers actually competing in the tournament... We expect Cornell to dominate team scoring (still no surprise), followed by Army, Hofstra, Columbia, Buffalo, and Binghamton. Columbia is the biggest change from predicted 2nd place to predicted 4th place.

Predictions are fun... but the wrestlers will figure things out tomorrow! Good luck to everyone. Looking forward to a great tournament! :D
Tyrion
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Re: NYS Intercollegiate - Rankings / Handicapping

Postby Allen Brown » Sun Nov 22, 2015 7:52 am

^^TYRION, Thank you - good analysis.
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